I usually don't comment on politics, but since this is about what is happening across the Pond, I though I would give it a go. It has been fascinating watching the British election unfurl. They held their first ever televised leaders debate - something that we take for granted here in Canada. And the outcome of that debate has been an increase in support for the third party in the UK, the Liberal Democrats under the leadership of Nick Clegg.
With voting scheduled for May 6, 2010, polls indicate that the outcome will be a "hung" parliament - a minority government in our nomenclature. One of the things that I have found rather strange is how partisan the media in the UK is. Rupert Murdoch controls 40% of the newspapers in the UK and his papers have been slagging the Lib Dem leader in screaming headlines. In the language of Yes, Minister, I believe that these papers have been "economical with the truth". The Sun has also been accused of censoring a poll that was favourable to Nick Clegg the Lib Dem leader. Take a look at the Independent's article that lays out the claim made by these papers and the truth.
Another interesting aspect of the UK election is the work of various think tanks in providing analysis of the platforms of the various parties. One such think tank is the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Over the years I have read a number of their analyses and always found them sound. They have just published quite a number of papers analyzing various aspects of the platforms, including Taxes and benefits; education policy; green policy; welfare reform; productivity, innovation and corporate tax; and the public services. They are well worth the read.
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Thursday, April 1, 2010
After the Meltdown
On March 24th I had the opportunity to attend an interesting session entitled "After the Meltdown: The limits and possibilities of economics" that was organized by the Centre for Global Challenges of the Glendon School of Public & International Affairs.
After introductions by Alex Himelfarb and words of welcome by Mamdouh Shoukri (President of York University), the microphone was turned over to Chaviva Hosek, President of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research to introduce the illustrious panelists.
The panelists were George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate & Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley; Tim Besley, Professor of Economics & Political Science at the London School of Economics; and Pierre Fortin, Professor of Economics at the University of Québec at Montreal.
George Akerlof spoke about "animal spirits" and how they impact the economy (this is from his recent book entitled "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism". The term "animal spirits" is derived from Keynes and relates to the confidence and gut feelings in determining business decisions.
By this he meant that data alone (profit/loss, eps, etc) are not enough to explain business decisions and that psychology has a role to play in it. Prof. Akerlof talked about the five animal spirits, with a special emphasis on "snake oil" to explain the meltdown.
In his talk, Prof Fortin outlined the three economic tasks that governments will have to respond to in the next decade: namely, drawing lessons from the recession, responding to the demographic forces that will impact western countries and accelerating economic growth.
On demographics, he quoted David Foot who said "Demographics explain about two-thirds of everything". This is especially true if you look at the demographics facing western industrialized countries like Canada. I have previously written and spoken about this (In fact I gave a speech which contained some of this information and my analysis a couple of days before this session). The combination of demographics and ever increasing health care costs will impose a squeeze on public finances over the medium term according to Prof Fortin. There are only two possible solutions: 1) radical change to our health care sector , and 2) accelerate economic growth.
It was an interesting discussion and I will post my remarks on the demographic challenges to either this blog (if I can figure out how) or to the IPAC website.
After introductions by Alex Himelfarb and words of welcome by Mamdouh Shoukri (President of York University), the microphone was turned over to Chaviva Hosek, President of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research to introduce the illustrious panelists.
The panelists were George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate & Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley; Tim Besley, Professor of Economics & Political Science at the London School of Economics; and Pierre Fortin, Professor of Economics at the University of Québec at Montreal.
George Akerlof spoke about "animal spirits" and how they impact the economy (this is from his recent book entitled "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism". The term "animal spirits" is derived from Keynes and relates to the confidence and gut feelings in determining business decisions.
"Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits - a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities." (161-162) - J.M.Keynes, General Theory.
By this he meant that data alone (profit/loss, eps, etc) are not enough to explain business decisions and that psychology has a role to play in it. Prof. Akerlof talked about the five animal spirits, with a special emphasis on "snake oil" to explain the meltdown.
In his talk, Prof Fortin outlined the three economic tasks that governments will have to respond to in the next decade: namely, drawing lessons from the recession, responding to the demographic forces that will impact western countries and accelerating economic growth.
On demographics, he quoted David Foot who said "Demographics explain about two-thirds of everything". This is especially true if you look at the demographics facing western industrialized countries like Canada. I have previously written and spoken about this (In fact I gave a speech which contained some of this information and my analysis a couple of days before this session). The combination of demographics and ever increasing health care costs will impose a squeeze on public finances over the medium term according to Prof Fortin. There are only two possible solutions: 1) radical change to our health care sector , and 2) accelerate economic growth.
It was an interesting discussion and I will post my remarks on the demographic challenges to either this blog (if I can figure out how) or to the IPAC website.
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